Selected Bibliography of Futures Works For APF Provisional Member Professional Development
Prepared by Peter Bishop, Terry Collins and Andy Hines - University of Houston, Futures Studies
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This bibliography is organized into three categories: theory, methods, and content.
Theory
- Barker, Joel, Discovering the Future: The Business of Paradigms, I.L.I. Press, 1988.
Application of Kuhn's paradigm-shift theory to business innovation
- Beck, Don and Cowan, Christopher, Spiral Dynamics, Blackwell, 1996.
How worldviews shift over time
- Bell, Wendell, Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era: History, Purposes, and Knowledge, Volumes I and II, Transaction, 1996.
A description of the emerging discipline of futures studies. Volume I covers forecasting and Volume II is about values
- Berger, Peter & Luckman, Thomas, The Social Construction of Reality, Anchor, 1967.
Classic describing how there is no objective reality, but rather how reality is socially constructed
- Boulding, Kenneth, The Image: Knowledge in Life and Society, University of Michigan, 1956.
A classic on the importance of images in thinking about the future
- Bury, J.B., The Idea of Progress, Macmillan, 1932.
Classic on the origins and evolution of the idea of progress, an important theory of social change
- Coates, Joseph & Jarratt, Jennifer, What Futurists Believe, World Future Society, 1987.
Interviews with 17 leading futurists of the time with analysis and summary
- Cornish, Edward, The Study of the Future, World Future Society, 1977.
The classic introduction and overview of futures studies
- Cornish, Edward, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, World Future Society, 2003.
Update of the 1977 “Study of the Future”
- Courtney, Hugh, 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World, Harvard Business School, 2001.
Looks at different levels of problems requiring different approaches and tools
- De Jouvenel, Bertrand, The Art of Conjecture, Basic Books, 1967.
Classic on how ideas about what may happen in the future as a means of deciding what actions to take in the present
- Galtung, Johan & Inayatullah, Sohail, Eds, Macrohistory and Macrohistorians: Perspectives on Individual, Social, and Civilizational Change, Praeger Publishers, 1997.
- Godet, Michel, From Anticipation to Action: A Handbook of Strategic Prospective, UNESCO, 1993.
- Gleick, James, Chaos: The Making of a New Science, Viking, 1987.
Helped to popularize chaos theory
- Hines, Andy & Bishop, Peter, Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight, Social Technologies (2006).
Guidelines on how to do strategic foresight from three dozen leading practitioners
- Hamel, Gary & Prahalad, C.K., Competing for the Future: Breakthrough Strategies for Seizing Control of your Industry and Creating Markets of Tomorrow, Harvard Business School, 1994.
How understanding the future “first” can help your organization gain competitive advantage
- Harman, Willis, An Incomplete Guide to the Future, San Francisco Book Company, 1976.
Describes ways to think about the future
- Hubbard, Barbara Marx, Conscious Evolution, New World Library, 1998.
Humans evolving toward higher forms of being
- Inayatullah, Sohail, Questioning the Future, 2nd Ed., Tamkang University, 2005.
Overviews some key ideas and methods in futures studies
- Inglehart, Ronald, Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural Economic, and Political Change in 43 Societies, Princeton University, 1997.
Description of how changes in global values are influencing the future
- Kauffman, Draper, Systems One: An Introduction to Systems Thinking, Future Systems, Inc., 1980,
Introduction to systems theory
- Kauffman, Stuart, At Home in the Universe: The Search for Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity, Oxford University, 1996.
Chronicle of complexity that describes how order emerges from chaos
- Linstone, Hal, Decision Making for Technology Executives: Using Multiple Perspectives to Improve Performance, Artech House, 2000.
Describes the need for multiple perspectives to improve decision making
- Marien, Michael & Jennings, Lane, Eds., What I Have Learned: Thinking About the Future Then and Now, Greenwood Publishing Group, 1987.
Essays by well-known futurists on what they have learned about themselves, futures studies, and the future.
- Marsh, Nick, McCallum, Mike, Purcell, Dominique, Strategic Foresight: The Power of Standing in the Future, Crown Content, 2002.
Introduction of strategic foresight into organizations
- Mintzberg, Henry, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning, Free Press, 1994.
Chronicles why strategic planning fell out of favor by the early 1990s
- Masini, Eleanora, Why Future Studies? Grey Seal Books, 1993.
A short introduction to thinking about the future, focusing on the rationale and benefits for doing so
- Ogilvy, James, Living Without a Goal; Finding the Freedom to Live a Creative and Innovative Life, Currency/Doubleday, 1995.
Permission from a well-known futurist to throw away your goal planner and live your life with joy
- Petersen, John, Out of the Blue: Wild Cards and Other Big Future Surprises: How to Anticipate and Respond to Profound Change, The Arlington Institute,1997.
An assortment of futuristic wildcards of low probability but high potential impact
- Polak, Fred, The Image of the Future, Elsevier, 1973.
Classic on the role of images of the future throughout history
- Schwartz, Peter, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Doubleday, 1996.
Business book on how to apply futures thinking and scenario development in a business
- Senge, Peter, The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization, Currency-Doubleday, 1990.
The key reference work on the learning organization
- Sardar, Ziauddin Ed. Rescuing All Our Futures: The Future of Future Studies, Praeger Publishers, 1999.
Suggests an alternative to Western-dominated approaches to futures studies
- Slaughter, Richard, Futures Beyond Dystopia: Creating Social Foresight, Routledge, 2003.
Lays out the case for Integral Futures
- Slaughter, Richard, Futures for the Third Millennium: Enabling the Forward View, Prospect Media, 2000.
Describes various applications of futures studies
- Slaughter, Richard, The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies.
A massive collection of articles about futures studies from writers from around the world that attempts to codify what is know about futures studies
- Tenner, Edward, Why Things Bite Back: Technology and the Revenge of Unintended Consequences, Knopf, 1996.
Chronicles the law of unintended consequences of new technology
- Wilber, Ken, Sex, Ecology, Spirituality: The Spirit of Evolution, Shambhala, 2001.
The groundbreaking work on Integral theory that has subsequently been applied to futures studies
- Wilber, Ken, A Theory of Everything: An integral Vision for Business, Politics, Science and Spirituality, Shambhala, 2001.
The “pop” version of Integral Theory.
Methods
- Armstrong, J. Scott, Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Kluwer, 2001.
A comprehensive guide to all forms of forecasting, both quantitative and qualitative
- Bryson, John & Einsweiler, Robert, Eds., Strategic Planning: Threats and Opportunities for Planners, American Planning Association Planners Press, 1988.
Strategic planning; methods and tools for public agencies and nonprofit organizations
- Choo, Chun Wei, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization: The Art of Scanning the Environment, Information Today Inc., 2001.
Overview of environmental scanning
- Coates, Joseph, Issues Management: How You Can Plan, Organize and Manage for the Future, Lomond 1986.
A how-to book on scanning for emerging issues.
- Fahey, Liam and Randall, Robert M., Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, John Wiley, 1997.
Details on scenario techniques with case studies
- Fowles, Jib Ed., Handbook of Futures Research, Greenwood Press, 1978.
Prominent futurists explain methods for studying the future
- Glenn, Jerome and Gordon, Ted, Futures Research Methodology, edited by Jerome Glenn. Millennium Project, February 2003. (CD-ROM).
Overview articles on wide range of futures methods
- Inayatullah, Sohail, Ed., The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology, Tamkang U Press, 2004.
Case studies the application of causal layered analysis
- Jungk, Robert & Mullert, Norbert, Future Workshops: How to Create Desirable Futures, Institute for Social Inventions, 1987.
Describes his futures workshop process
- Lindgren, Mats & Bandhold, Hans, Scenario Planning: The Link Between Future and Strategy,Palgrave Macmillan, 2003. Martino, Joseph, Technological Forecasting for Decision Making, McGraw-Hill, 1993.
How-to guide for technological forecasting
- Millett, Stephen, A Manager's Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis, Edward J. Honton.; Battelle, 1991.
A brief synopsis of the full-range of futures tools used to forecast technology
- Modis, Theodore, Conquering Uncertainty: Understanding Corporate Cycles and Positioning Your Company to Survive the Changing Environment, McGraw-Hill, 1998.
How to use S-curve changes to forecast almost anything
- Nanus, Burt, The Vision Retreat: A Facilitator's Guide, Jossey-Bass, 1995.
A how-to manual for running a vision retreat
- Ogilvy, James, Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning As a Tool for A Better Tomorrow, Oxford University Press, 2002.
- Rescher, Nicholas, Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting, SUNY Press, 1998.
A highly technical approach to forecasting
- Ringland, Gill, & Todd, Keith, Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, John Wiley, 1998.
A scenario development textbook
- Senge, Peter, Charlotte Roberts, Rick Ross, Bryan Smith, & Art Kleiner, Eds., The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook : Strategies and Tools for Building a Learning Organization, Doubleday, 1994.
Tools and resources for building a learning organization
- Van Der Heijden, Kees, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, John Wiley, 1997.
A conceptual introduction to strategic thinking and scenario planning
- Van Der Heijden, Kees, The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios, John Wiley & Sons, 2002.
Practice and benefits of scenario thinking
- Woodgate, Derek with Pethrick, Wayne, Future Frequencies, Fringecore, 2004.
A consulting futures firm lays out how they do it
- Wygant, Alice, and Markley, Oliver, Information and the Future: A Handbook of Sources and Strategies, Greenwood Press, 1988.
A guide for how to find information about the future
- Weiner, Edith & Brown, Arnold, Insider's Guide to the Future, Boardroom Books, 1997.
Tips on analyzing trends for business
- Weisbord, Marvin & Janoff, Sandra, Future Search: An Action Guide to Finding Common Ground in Organizations and Communities, Berrett-Koehler, 1995.
Description of the Future Search workshop process
Content
- Anderson, Walter Truett, The Future of the Self: Inventing a Post-Modern Person, Penguin Putnam, 1997.
Social and psychological issues of modern life
- Bell, Daniel, The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting, Basic Books, 1973.
A social forecast of the future of modern, post-industrial society
- Bellamy, Edward, Looking Backward: 2000-1887, Signet, 2002.
A classic utopian novel about 19th century Bostonian being transported to the future
- Berry, Adrian The Next 500 Years: Life in the Coming Millennium, W. H. Freeman, 1996.
Possibilities of the future, emphasizing technology and outer space
- Brand, Stewart, The Clock of the Long Now: Time and Responsibility, Basic Books, 1999.
10,000 year clock - a slow computer that will keep perfect time during the “long now"; insightful reflections on the future
- Brown, Lester, Plan B: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble, Norton, 2003.
Future of economics' negative effect on the environment
- Coates, Joseph, Mahaffie, John, & Hines, Andy, 2025: Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology, Oak Hill, 1996.
A very positive view of the technological future written as scenarios from the year 2025
- de Geus, Arie, The Living Company, Harvard Business School, 1997.
A how-to guide for corporate longevity
- Ferkiss, Victor, The Future of Technological Civilization, George Braziller, 1971.
Ecological immanentism; peaceful revolution needed for human development on a finite planet
- Flavin, Christopher, Vital Signs 200x : The Environmental Trends That Are Shaping Our Future W.W. Norton.
A compendium of global trends and the statistical time series to back them up, published annually
- Fukuyama, Francis, Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2002.
Emergence of post-humanism
- Gibson, William, Neuromancer, Ace Books, 1984.
Pioneering cyberpunk sci-fi novel
- Gidley, Jennifer & Inayatullah, Sohail, Youth Futures: Comparative Research and Transformative Visions, Praeger Publishers, 2002.
Young peoples' view on the future
- Glenn, Jerome & Gordon, Ted, The State of the Future, Millennium Project, 200x.
A compendium of global challenges, scenarios and solutions from an international panel of futurists updated annually
- Herbert, Frank, Dune, Putnam, 1965.
A sci-fi fantasy based in desert planet setting
- Hughes, Barry, International Futures: Choices in the Creation of a New World Order, Westview Press, 1996.
Defines and develops key concepts in demographics, economics, the environment, and other issues
- Huxley, Aldous, Brave New World, Harper & Row, 1933.
A classic dystopian novel
- Kahn, Herman, & Wiener Anthony, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years, Macmillan, 1967.
Summarizes some key ideas of Herman Kahn about the future
- Jensen, Rolf, The Dream Society: How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform your Business, McGraw-Hill Marketing, 1999.
- Kelly, Eamonn, Peter Leyden, & Members of the Global Business Network, What's Next? Perseus Publishing, 2002.
GBN’s network of remarkable people talk about the future and business
- Kelly, Eammon, Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World, Wharton School, 2005.
Explores key uncertainties shaping the future
- Kurian, George, and Molitor, Graham T.T, The Encyclopedia of the Future, Simon & Shuster; Macmillan, 1996.
A wide range of ideas and thoughts about the future in brief essay form
- Kurzweil, Ray, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human intelligence, 1999.
Forecasts the rise of intelligent machines
- Kurzweil, Ray, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Viking 2005.
How exponential growth in information technology is leading us toward a “singularity” in which life as we know it is unrecognizable on the other side
- Markley, Oliver & McCuan, Eds., Walter, America Beyond 2001: Opposing Viewpoints, Greenhaven Press, 1996.
Future thinkers from Albert Gore to Alvin Toffler take a look at numerous issues, such as the pace of technological change, the future of the economy, and the political future of America
- Masuda, Yoneji, The Information Society As Post-Industrial Society, World Future Society, 1981.
Classic preview of the information society
- Meadows, Donella & Meadows, Dennis, The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind, Universe Publications, 1972.
Classic projection of exceeding planetary capacity derived from a systems model
- Meadows, Donella, Meadows, Dennis, & Randers, Jorgen, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Chelsea Green Publishing Company, 2004.
2nd update of the 1972 study concluding that planet is still approaching the limits of its resources unless suggested corrective measures are taken
- Naisbitt, John, Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives, Warner 1982.
10 major trends shaping the 1980s derived from content analysis
- Orwell, George, 1984, Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1949.
Classic dystopian novel about authoritarian society
- Pearson, Ian, Ed. The Macmillan Atlas of the Future, Macmillan Reference. 1998.
Full-color maps and graphics provide a clear, vivid overview of where we are headed in the next millennium
- Petersen, John, The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future, Waite Group, 1994.
Looks at how trends in a wide variety of sectors are evolving
- Ray, Paul & Sherry Anderson, The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People Are Changing the World, Harmony, 2000.
Chronicles the rise and influence of an influential cohort
- Robinson, Kim Stanley, Red Mars, Spectra, 1993.
Sci fi story on the founding a colony on Mars
- Stapledon, Olaf, Last and First Men, Dover, 1968.
A “future history” of the next 22 iterations of the human species
- Schwartz, Peter, Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence, Gotham Books, 2003.
Explores the big issues shaping what he sees as a turbulent future
- Schwartz, Peter, Leyden, Peter & Hyatt, Joel, The Long Boom: A History of the World's Future 1980-2020, Perseus Publishing, 1999.
Optimistic scenario of the early 21st century
- Shostak, Arthur, Viable Utopian Ideas: Shaping a Better World, M.E. Sharpe, 2003.
Traces the evolution of utopian thinking and makes the case for its value
- Sterling, Bruce, Heavy Weather, Bantam, 1994.
Sci Fi story about the future in a world with drastically altered climate and weather
- Sterling, Bruce, Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next 50 Years, Random House, 2002.
A sci fi writer takes a non-fiction approach to describing the future
- Strauss, William & Howe, Neil, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, Broadway Books. 1997.
Forecasts America is roughly a decade away from its next era of crisis and change
- Toffler, Alvin, Future Shock, Random House, 1970.
Identifies future shock as a phenomenon of people not being able to cope with rapid social change
- Toffler, Alvin, The Third Wave, William Morrow, 1980.
Chronicles the emergence of a new human civilization from industrial society
- Toffler, Alvin, Powershift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Violence at the Edge of the 21st Century, Bantam, 1990.
Suggests three important forms of power ahead: knowledge, wealth, and violence
- Wagar, W. Warren, The Next Three Futures: Paradigms of Things to Come, Praeger Publishers, 1991.
Technoliberals, radicals, and counterculturalists as the 3 groups in futures thinking
- Wagar, W. Warren, A Short History of the Future, University of Chicago, 1999.
Scenario for world developments during the twenty-first century
- World Future Society, The Futurist Directory: A Guide to Individuals Who Write, Speak, or Consult about the Future, World Future Society, 2000.
A listing of nearly 1,400 individuals involved in FS
- Worldwatch Institute, The State of the World, Norton, Annual.
Annual publication regarding global environmental trends
- Zolli, Andrew, Ed. TechTV's Catalog of Tomorrow, Que, 2002.
A beautifully illustrated review of our new technological futures
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